Why the beans stall
Put a probe in a cacao roast and you see something that surprises people the first time: the bean temperature climbs, then flattens out for a while near the boiling point of water, then starts climbing again.
Nothing is broken. That plateau is the moisture leaving. While there is free water in the bean, the energy you apply goes into evaporating it rather than raising its temperature — so you can turn the heat up and watch the number refuse to move. It is the same reason a pan of boiling water stays at boiling however high the flame.
Understanding that plateau is most of what you need to know about moisture, because the moment it breaks is the one landmark cacao actually gives you. Coffee gets first crack. Cacao gets this — but only if you can see the bean temperature.
How much water is in there
Cacao arrives fermented and sun-dried, and the trade generally specifies moisture capped around 7–8%. Below roughly that, the beans store safely; above it, mould risk rises sharply in shipping and storage, which is why the specification exists at all.
What matters for roasting is that the specification is a ceiling, not a target. Two sacks that both comply can sit at meaningfully different moisture levels, and they will not roast the same. Nor will the same sack in January and in July if it has been sitting in a humid space — dried cacao will take moisture back on from the air.
This is a large part of why a time-and-temperature recipe that worked last month can miss this month on the same equipment. Nothing changed except the water.